The American Medical Association reports HERE   that “The health reform law is expected to reduce the uninsured population in the U.S. by more than half within the decade. But members of certain groups that have historically gone without coverage -- undocumented immigrants and young people, for example -- are expected to continue making up a sizeable portion of the uninsured that remain…. Many uninsured adults without kids likely will be part of the 16 million additional people expected to enroll in Medicaid when the program expands in 2014. Also, 24 million others with higher incomes will purchase coverage through new state health insurance exchanges, many with federal subsidies, according to a March 20 Congressional Budget Office analysis….The CBO estimates that about 23 million people will still be without insurance by 2019, about 32 million fewer than there would have been without the health reform law.  Of those remaining uninsured, about a third will be illegal immigrants. Another significant bloc likely will be younger people who choose not to obtain coverage or can't afford it…”

“The law requires individuals to have a minimum level of insurance or pay a tax penalty, but it exempts people who would pay more than 8% of their income in premiums….Illegal immigrants will be largely on their own. They are not permitted to enroll in Medicaid or to buy health coverage in the insurance exchanges…studies show that up to half of illegal immigrants have employer-based insurance."

“For years, uninsured Americans had a choice: Do they get by without care, seek charity care or pay out of pocket?  Starting in 2014, Americans will face a different dilemma: Do they buy a minimum level of insurance, or do they pay a penalty for not having it? Experts said the penalties probably aren't large enough to encourage everyone to buy coverage. Many families would have to pay several thousand dollars a year in premiums to avoid a cheaper penalty…People without adequate coverage will pay a penalty of $95 or 1% of taxable income -- whichever is greater -- in 2014. That increases to $695 or 2.5% of taxable income in 2016. In later years, the annual penalty increases based on the cost of living but is capped at the annual premium level for an average exchange plan.”

“Exempted from the penalty are American Indians and people who demonstrate financial hardships, have religious objections, are incarcerated, are uninsured for less than three months, or don't earn enough to file a tax return.”

“Some key decisions during implementation will help determine the affordability of insurance and therefore will influence how many people decide to opt out of coverage and pay the penalty. One of the most significant is the level of coverage needed to satisfy the mandate.... The Health and Human Services secretary will finalize that standard by 2014.”

“If minimum coverage standards are high and premiums are costly, people are more likely to pay the penalty and wait until they get sick to get guaranteed coverage... ‘The great concern there is that will drive up costs for everyone.’”

“The Massachusetts health reform law -- the model for the national reform -- levies tax penalties against those without a minimum level of health insurance. About 45,000 residents were subject to a penalty in 2008, equal to half the cost of the least expensive health exchange plan, an amount ranging from $234 to $1,068. About 96% of residents had the minimum required coverage that year.”

“Even if the law does reduce the number of uninsured to 23 million, public hospitals still could be busy caring for new Medicaid enrollees and the newly insured in 2014.... "There are definitely capacity issues that will need to be looked at by 2014 to make sure people have access to care."

"Three years after reform, most Massachusetts emergency departments were not less crowded…Two thirds of respondents said volumes had increased or remained the same."

"The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is expected to lead to more than 30 million residents being covered by the end of the decade who would have been uninsured had reform not been enacted. But millions of others will remain without coverage."

By 2019 here is how the law is expected to impact the various programs:                                              
Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program could have expected some  35 million without the law.  Estimates now expect 51 million with the Health reform law.

Employer-sponsored coverage would have had 162 million without the law, but now can expect some 159million.

Non-group and other coverage would have been 30 million, now it is expected to be 25 million.

Insurance exchange health plans are expected to serve 24 million.

Uninsured would have been some 54 million people, now it is expected to be 23 million.